A Decision-Analytic Approach to Evaluating and Justifying Capacity Plans

Abstract

Experience indicates that a broad array of considerations influences the selection of a plan for meeting capacity requirements. Because no particular plan is likely to be optimal with respect to all such considerations, planners are forced to consider carefully the tradeoffs imposed by alternative plans and to produce a compelling argument for selecting the plan that best balances these tradeoffs. These tasks are challenging, because the number of conflicting considerations in meeting capacity requirements generally is large, as is the number of feasible alternative plans. In this paper, we present a capacity-planning model based on Decision Analysis that integrates these tradeoffs in a formal fashion. In addition, we describe work toward an advisory system that employs the model to evaluate a set of proposed plans and generates conversational arguments in support of preferred plans using techniques from Interpretive Value Analysis. Our methodology suggests that Decision Analysis with Interpretive Value Analysis potentially provides a foundation for evaluating and justifying capacity plans.