Efficient direct density ratio estimation for non-stationarity adaptation and outlier detection

Abstract

We address the problemof estimating the ratio of two probability density functions (a.k.a. the importance). The importance values can be used for various succeeding tasks such as non-stationarity adaptation or outlier detection. In this paper, we propose a new importance estimation method that has a closed-form solution; the leave-one-out cross-validation score can also be computed analytically. Therefore, the proposed method is computationally very efficient and numerically stable. We also elucidate theoretical properties of the proposed method such as the convergence rate and approximation error bound. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method is comparable to the best existing method in accuracy, while it is computationally more efficient than competing approaches.