Mapping induced residential demand for electricity in Kenya

Abstract

Despite substantial gains in the past few decades, 550 million people in sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to electricity. Rural areas present the largest electrification challenge, with access levels below 12% in most countries. Public rural electrification efforts, where undertaken, have generally effected slow and limited change. Further, to motivate the substantial investment required for traditional large-scale generation and transmission projects, strong demand for electricity ser- vices is required, and this demand is not easily demonstrated in rural African settings in which little data and substantial uncertainty exist. In this paper, we develop a predictive model for mapping induced residential demand for electricity - the hypothetical demand that would exist if access to electricity services were made available. We apply this model on a fine geographic basis to Kenya to demonstrate the applicability of the approach to informing public or private electrification efforts. Together with spatially explicit cost models for generation, transmission, and distribution, these induced demand predictions can be used to evaluate various technology options, business models, and tariff structures, or to guide public sector electrification program development.