Winter forecast performance of an operational mesoscale modelling system in the northeast U.S. - Winter 2002-2003

Abstract

The winter season forecast performance of an operational mesoscale modeling system dubbed Deep Thunder over the northeast United States was examined. Model was compared with significant snowfall events during 2002-2003 season, considering the operational availability of such results. An estimated snowfall accumulation map for the storm event from the NWS Northeast River Forecast Center was shown. Deep Thunder demonstrated skill in the regional scale prediction of winter season storms. A weak positive bias in snowfall accumulation appeared for the dry snow prediction algorithm.