Finding latent causes in causal networks: An efficient approach based on Markov blankets

Abstract

Causal structure-discovery techniques usually assume that all causes of more than one variable are observed. This is the so-called causal sufficiency assumption. In practice, it is untestable, and often violated. In this paper, we present an efficient causal structure-learning algorithm, suited for causally insufficient data. Similar to algorithms such as IC* and FCI, the proposed approach drops the causal sufficiency assumption and learns a structure that indicates (potential) latent causes for pairs of observed variables. Assuming a constant local density of the data-generating graph, our algorithm makes a quadratic number of conditional-independence tests w.r.t. the number of variables. We show with experiments that our algorithm is comparable to the state-of-the-art FCI algorithm in accuracy, while being several orders of magnitude faster on large problems. We conclude that MBCS* makes a new range of causally insufficient problems computationally tractable.